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Patrons at McGregor's Bar and Grill in San Diego watch the first televised presidential debate Monday between Democratic Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
Photo:
Sandy Huffaker/Reuters
By
Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos
The Wall Street Journal
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Sept. 27, 2016 7:35 p.m. ET
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton put forward sharply different portraits of the U.S. economy in their first face-to-face debate, offering voters a choice not only on the details of trade and tax policy but also on which assessment best reflects the state of the nation.
The Democratic nominee characterized the economy as improving—and nearing a turn toward breakout growth—from the past decade’s financial crisis and housing bust. Her Republican rival saw no such recovery. He described a country in steep decline, with aging infrastructure and jobs by the thousands flowing to Mexico and China.
Both have some ground to stand on in the current economic landscape.
On the upside, the economy has continued to add jobs at a steady clip, with a hiring streak that surpassed its previous record in March and is now at 70 straight months. The unemployment rate is below 5%, gas prices have fallen below $2.50 a gallon and home prices have recovered to last decade’s levels. Median household incomes rose 5% last year, the Census Bureau reported earlier this month, leaving them 1.6% below the 2007 level, before the last recession struck.
But economic growth, in the U.S. and abroad, has been sluggish since the last recession ended in 2009, with global central banks holding rates near zero to boost borrowing and consumption.
In the U.S., the homeownership rate has fallen to a 50-year low, and a large swath of Americans now say they worry their children won’t face the same opportunities for upward mobility that they did.
Even with recent gains in income, the typical male full-time worker earned around $150 less last year than in 1998, after adjusting for inflation.
One question now is which view of the economy will resonate most with voters this fall: one of a crippled nation in a “big, fat, ugly bubble,” as Mr. Trump said Monday, or one on the cusp of better times after nearly 15 years of mediocre growth.
The debate came at a time when gauges of consumer confidence are generally showing solid readings. The latest measure Tuesday from the Conference Board hit its highest point in nine years, a sign American households are emerging from the recession’s long shadow and could continue to support U.S. economic growth.
The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index increased to a seasonally adjusted 104.1 in September from an upwardly revised 101.8 in August, the business research group said. That was its highest level since August 2007, which marked the start of the financial crisis that led to the severe 2007-09 recession.
The September confidence surge “suggests that the presidential election campaign is not having a detrimental effect on sentiment,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
During the debate, Mr. Trump dismissed signs of stronger growth as a mirage. “The only thing that looks good is the stock market, but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that’s going to come crashing down,” he said.
Mrs. Clinton talked about how bad off the country was when President Barack Obama took over in 2009, and how far things have come. “We have come back from that abyss, and it has not been easy,” she said. “So we’re now on the precipice of having a potentially much better economy.”
—Ben Leubsdorf contributed to this article.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
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