Fantasy football 2016: RBs to avoid at all costs - Washington Post

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New York Jets running back Matt Forte could lose carries to Bilal Powell. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Running backs have lost their luster in fantasy football circles in recent years, but you need at least two in most standard-scoring leagues. However, that doesn’t mean all RBs on your cheat sheet are worth drafting. In fact, there are quite a few that should be avoided at all costs.

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For example, the Bears’ Jeremy Langford is listed as No. 1 on the depth chart ahead of Ka’Deem Carey, Jordan Howard and Jacqizz Rodgers, and has been getting a majority of the first-team reps with quarterback Jay Cutler. Yet early in the preseason Coach John Fox expressed an interest in both limiting his running backs’ workload and playing the “hot hand,” which led Chicago Tribune’s Rich Campbell to summarize the Bears’ backfield situation as “hell for fantasy football owners.”

#Bears' Jeremy Langford recorded the highest drop rate of any NFL RB last season, letting eight of 30 catchable targets hit the turf.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 27, 2016

Plus, the schedule does not favor Chicago until Week 11 of the regular season. Before that they play just two rush defenses who ranked below average in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric last season.

A crowded backfield with a tough schedule is definitely one to avoid. Here are three others who aren’t worth the risk on draft day.

Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts

Gore continues to trend in the wrong direction. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry in 2015 — the lowest rate of his career — with just 2.23 of those yards coming after contact, ranking him 19 out of 25 rushers in that regard per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.

He also turned 33 years old in May, which is another red flag. Since the merger of 1970, just two running backs age 33 or over cracked the 1,000-yard mark in a season: John Riggins (1983 and 1984) and Franco Harris (1983).  Just nine running backs managed 100 or more yards in a game at the age of 33 or older, the last instance occurring in 2008.

Gore’s last 100-yard game was in 2014.

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Matt Forte, New York Jets

Forte was a workhorse for the Chicago Bears ever since he was drafted in 2008, and now he will attempt to do the same for the New York Jets, who signed Forte this offseason to a three-year deal worth $12 million.

Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy have played a *TON* of snaps over the last four seasons. pic.twitter.com/aBl8ZATcEP

— Chris Towers (@CTowersCBS) August 25, 2016

Unfortunately, the grass isn’t always greener on another team. The Jets offensive line ranked 26th for power success (59 percent of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, achieved a first down or touchdown) in 2015 and allowed their rusher to be stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 23 percent of the time (26th in NFL). Pro Football Focus has them ranked as the 24th best offensive line heading into 2016, indicating the lack of depth could turn this into “a long-term problem.”

Plus, Bilal Powell, a change-of-pace back, could cut into his production.

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Powell was targeted 63 times last season — with 41.2 percent of those targets on third down — and totaled 701 yards from scrimmage. A large part of his touches (83.8 percent) occurred when the offense had more than six yards to go for a first down or touchdown.

Powell is also the better pass blocker, earning the ninth-highest grade from PFF among 68 backs involved in at least 25 percent of their team’s plays. Forte ranked 19th.

If that’s not enough to sway you, the Jets have one of the hardest schedules in terms of rush defense in 2016.

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Yeldon averaged 61.7 rushing yards per game as a rookie, adding 279 more yards through the passing game, but injuries limited him to just 12 games in 2015. And his preseason workload suggests he could stake a claim as the No. 1 back on the depth chart.

For Jaguars offense, TJ Yeldon out snapped Chris Ivory 19 to 12

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 29, 2016

However, the presence of red-zone threat Chris Ivory, who broke the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time last season as a member of the New York Jets, severely limits Yeldon’s fantasy value as a sophomore. Six of Ivory’s seven rushing touchdowns started in the red zone last season and only five other backs had more red-zone attempts. Ivory also produced more yards per attempt after contact than Yeldon did in 2015.

At best, this is a even split between the two rushers. At worst it’s a frustrating string of vultured touchdowns for fantasy owners who draft Yeldon.

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