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BANGKOK—
Legal experts say Thailand’s military is looking to hold an extended period of overseeing the government following the passage of a junta backed constitution on Sunday.
Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha Tuesday said elections would go ahead as planned after voters supported the military backed charter. On the weekend over 15 million people, or 61 percent, supported the charter out of 25 million votes cast.
By a majority of 58 percent, voters also agreed to have a 250 member military appointed Senate join with the 500 member elected House of Representatives to select a new prime minister after polls.
Thais last went to the polls in 2011 and that led to the election of the Pheu Thai Party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government was ousted in the May 2014 coup led by Prayut, who is also leader of the junta, the National Peace Keeping Council or (NCPO).
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said the outcome highlighted voters’ desire to move to general elections.
“It was not a direct endorsement for the legitimacy of the military government. But Thai people don’t really vote for individuals. So the overall result suggests that people want to have their say at the polls. It’s a way of going forward to the polls, towards elections.” Thitinan said.
Henning Glaser, a lecturer in law at Thammasat University, said the new constitution reflects a trend in Thailand of charters as being “anti-electoral”, similar to the United States and Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries.
“What we know from Thai constitutionalism for a long time, Thai constitutionalism is always or has always been fundamentally anti-electoral. However, looking at this draft constitution we see a kind of radicalization of this anti-electoral stance,” Glaser said.
The Pheu Thai Party and its leader, Yingluck Shinawatra, opposed the charter, while Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva personally opposed the draft, leading to splits within his party.
Thailand's opposition leader and former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva speaks during a news conference at a hotel in Bangkok, May 3, 2014.
Weak parties
Glaser said the main political parties, such as Pheu Thai and Democrat – also known as Phak Prachathipat – will be weakened under the new constitution.
“In terms of the election law, bigger parties will lose. This affects especially Pheu Thai and Phak Prachthipat parties – while middle sized parties will relatively gain in elections,” Glaser said.
“We have a weak parliament consisting of weak politicians and political parties – which are highly fragmented – we will have a weak government too,” he said.
The 250 member appointed senate will include six military leaders and senior defense officials for at least five years.
“We have very probably a government which will be represented by the powers supporting the government right now but we can also say we have most probably – if there’s no major interruption – the rule of this power bloc until 2016 or 2017,” said Glaser.
The latest charter, Thailand’s 20th since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932, was the second to be written since the military took power in May 2014. The first was voted down by the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) in September last year.
Thailand Election Commission's chairman Supachai Somcharoen (C) gestures during a news conference at the Election Commission Office in Bangkok, Aug. 7, 2016.
Controlling power
Suchit Bumbongkam, a professor of politics at Chulalongkorn University, collaborated in the writing of last year’s charter, said the military leaders will not relinquish power easily.
“They will continue to play a very vital role in setting up the government. The point is you see, not only setting up the government, the military will continue to play a vital role in overseeing national security issues. It might be possible that one of the leaders of the NCPO would be the prime minister,” Suchit said.
Under Thailand’s current interim constitution, Prayut replaced martial law, imposed soon after the May 2014 coup, with another law – Article 44 – which rights groups describe as ‘draconian’, granting absolute powers to Prayut.
The law – and others enacted by the military since taking power – grants soldiers the power of arrest, prevents political gatherings of more than five people and allows for media censorship.
David Streekfuss, director of the Council on International Educational Exchange – Thailand, said such laws are expected to remain in place even after a new government comes to power.
“All these laws by the [junta] NCPO – hundreds of laws and announcements, directives, all remain legal – that would mean even after an elected government [comes to power]. All these things that we see – the suppressing freedom of speech will stay in play,” he said. “So you get more than just a constitution by voting for this draft, you’d get the NCPO forever and ever,” Streekfuss said.
But analysts say voters were willing to see the military take a central role while Thailand is undergoing a transitional period against the backdrop of the popular but ailing 88-year-old King Bhumibol Adulaydej.
Chualonglongkorn University’s Thitinan said many Thais are hoping the transition will be peaceful.
“People are more concerned with the transitional period. They want to see some kind of peaceful and viable transition and that’s why they’ve cut some slack for the military,” he said.
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