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With Hillary Clinton's lead widening — in national polls and several critical swing states — and Donald Trump's campaign in an apparent freefall after a disastrous week, Republicans have become increasingly alarmed at the prospect that Trump may be a major liability for several GOP senators up for re-election.
GOP Senate candidates, not surprisingly, are being asked about every crazy and controversial thing Trump says and does. While many GOP Senate seats were already in play before Trump became the nominee, the polarizing candidate at the top of the ticket makes it harder for GOP Senate candidates facing voters in November. "That's the reality," former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said Thursday.
Steele, also an MSNBC political analyst, added, "Candidates have to answer for whatever issues they need to deal with in their state. They don't want layered on top of that the latest musings of a highly controversial presidential nominee. You don't want the microphone stuck in your face asking you about that, too," said Steele. "They just can't afford to have the extra baggage on what is already a difficult re-elect."
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The presidential contest always plays an enormous role in how Americans cast their votes in "down-ballot" races for Senate, governor, Congress, city council, and so on. If a voter chooses a party's presidential candidate, research shows, that voter will probably stick with that party all the way down the ballot.
So what happens to Republican Senate candidates if Trump loses to HIllary Clinton by a wide margin? What if Republican voters stay home on Election Day because of Trump — or worse yet, vote for his Democratic opponent?
Of course, voters could ticket-split — casting their ballot for president for one party and other lower level candidates of another party. But history suggests that's unlikely. In 1984, one out of every two Americans split their ticket, while in 2012 it was one in five. "We're seeing the decline of ticket splitting because of the deeply-rooted polarization we're seeing in the electorate," said G. Terry Madonna, director of Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin Marshall College.
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That could have major implications for control of the Senate come November. "If either presidential candidate were to have a seven-, eight-, or nine-point lead, the opponent for the Senate in the other party will have his or hands full in getting a lot of ticket splitting," Madonna said, adding that if Clinton wins by such a margin, the Senate will go Democratic.
There are 34 seats up for grabs in the Senate, 24 of which are currently held by Republicans. If Clinton wins, Democrats need to flip only four seats to win control of the Senate.
Several polls released on Thursday show Clinton with sizeable leads over Trump in critical states, including 11 points in Pennsylvania, nine points in Michigan and 15 points in New Hampshire. Nationally, Clinton is ahead of Trump by nine points — 47 percent to 39 percent — according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday.
GOP Senate candidates are dealing with the Trump drama in very different ways.
ILLINOIS
There's Republican Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois — a traditionally blue state — who in June became the first GOP senator to unendorse Trump. Kirk, who is facing Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, is considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans up for re-election.
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